The words "Deter and, if necessary, Defend" have been central to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation's vocabulary since the beginning of its existence. NATO's first Strategic Concept, in 1950, established that the primary function of NATO was to deter aggression, and that NATO forces would only engage in hostilities if deterrence failed. The second Strategic Concept, developed in 1952, added the notion of 'forward strategy' to support deterrence. At that time, forward strategy meant placing a military presence as far East as possible, in this case near the border between East and West Germany. The concept was intended to discourage any Communist expansionist ambitions toward the West. For more than 70 years, the Deter and Defend strategy evolved, and proved to be very effective. Over the decades, the countries that comprise NATO have maintained peace and stability within their borders. The NATO Alliance has grown from 12 nations to 30, soon to become 32 if all goes well. Those who joined NATO have collectively provided safety, security, commerce, democracy, and freedom to more than a billion citizens.
Recent events have shown us just how important, and fragile, safety and security can be. The brutal and unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has returned the long shadow of war to Europe. It has triggered a major re-evaluation of the threat to Euro-Atlantic security, and the way NATO needs to Deter and Defend.
In response to Russian aggression in Ukraine, and in order to bolster Alliance security, NATO immediately activated its defence plans, deployed elements of the NATO Response Force, and nations significantly increased NATO's force presence on the Eastern Flank of the Alliance. At the June 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid, Alliance political leaders approved a new Strategic Concept designed to shape Western security posture for years to come. The new concept did many things - it recognised the Russian Federation as the most significant threat to Allied security, but also highlighted other threats: terrorism; instability in the Middle East and Africa; emerging disruptive technologies; the erosion of arms control; and climate change. Additionally, the Strategic Concept named China for the first time as a 'strategic competitor' to the Alliance.
The Madrid summit signalled a change for all of NATO-affiliated military units. The evolution of the Deter and Defend strategy has since sped up dramatically and, we in the Central European Theatre, are at the heart of its new focus areas.
Hostilities between Russia and Ukraine are not new; after Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO increased its forward presence in the East by establishing four Battlegroups: one each in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Representatives agreed at the 2022 Madrid Summit that four additional Battlegroups would be constituted in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, and that existing Battlegroups would increase in size by 50-100 percent. Allied nations also committed to maintain combat-ready, brigade-sized forces at readiness to deploy whenever and wherever they are needed. This is a renewed vision of the old forward strategy, redesigned to match today's strategic landscape.
At the Madrid Summit, senior leaders also took a fresh look at the NATO Response Force, a group of up to 40,000 high-readiness troops who are ready for crisis response on short notice. By introducing a new NATO Force Model, NATO leaders agreed to develop an Allied Reaction Force that is even larger, and at higher readiness than the current NRF.
All of the changes decided upon at the Madrid Summit represent a reinvigoration of the original Deter and Defend concept, by placing a deeper NATO presence in a wider geographical area than ever before. By sending the message to our neighbours in the East that we are ready for battle, we give ourselves a much greater chance of keeping hostilities in Ukraine from spilling over into the Central European Theatre.
The world held its breath in November, when errant missiles departed the airspace over Ukraine and detonated in Poland, tragically killing two. This was the kind of incident political and military leaders across Europe had feared ever since the invasion began in February. Was this the miscalculation that would escalate tensions between NATO and Russia beyond the point of no return? NATO leaders took very deliberate action, carefully analysing the data to determine that the incident did not constitute an intentional attack on NATO territory. While the incident served as a reminder that the European continent is on a razor's edge, the NATO Alliance showed clear resolve while preventing the Ukraine conflict from expanding into greater hostilities.
Thus far, the credibility of NATO's Article V, in terms of collective defence, is not at risk. The very existence of Article V, coupled with a strong NATO presence in the East, has offered sufficient deterrence and a renewed positive attitude toward the fundamentals of the Alliance. But deterrence only works if our adversary understands that we are ready to fight to defend our values, territory, and way of life. The threat is not over, and we need to stand united to deter and assure; and ultimately defend and fight, wherever and whenever needed.
Remember: If you seek peace, prepare for war. We in NATO will always seek peace, but we understand this is only possible if we are completely prepared to fight against any threat to the safety and security of our people.